🏀 Tubz 🛀 Unfiltered - Volume 72
March Madness Mega Breakdown + Silicon Valley Bank goes bye-bye
Happy Monday, y’all!
This week’s volume might be the longest one ever, so I’m not going to waste any time pointing out that it is very nice living in a warm climate.
🛁 EXTRA BUBBLES 🛁
The Oscars hit the airwaves Sunday night. I did not watch it.
🏆 SPORTZ 🏆
THE BEST TIME OF THE YEAR
March Madness is finally here! The below piece of content was live on CBS Sports’ website prior to the unveiling of the 68-team bracket. Wisconsin was not part of the 68-team bracket. In fact, they were not even one of the First Four Teams Out. Cruel and unusual punishment like you read about. (The Badgers were originally a three seed in the NIT field when the bracket was revealed, but the committee made an oopsie and so UW is now a two seed.)
Before I break down the actual bracket 😔, make sure to join my March Madness pool.
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SOUTH
The Alabama Crimson Tide, who won both the SEC regular season title and conference tournament title despite having no morals, is the No. 1 overall seed in the entire tournament.
I’m going to pencil the Tide in (putting logic over morals, my apologies) for the second round, where they will face the winner of (8) Maryland and (9) West Virginia. Kevin Willard, the bald head coach of the Terrapins (KenPom: 35th in offensive efficiency; 33rd in defensive efficiency), is 1-5 all-time in NCAA Tournament games. Fat boy Bobby Huggins, the head coach of the Mountaineers (KenPom: 15th; 52nd), is 34-24 in NCAA Tournament games.
Charleston, the 12 seed in the region, will be a sexy pick to upset San Diego State. Keep in mind, though, that the Aztecs are 10th in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. The ultimate question: who will control the pace of the game? Charleston is 29th in adjusted tempo, while SDSU is 252nd.
The Furman Paladins (!!) will face off against the No. 4 seed, Virginia. The Cavaliers lost to Duke in the ACC title game and will be without Ben Vander Plaats (7.4 points, and 4.6 rebounds in 24.8 minutes per game) for the entire tournament due to injury. Tony Bennett’s squad, 74th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency, ranks dead last among all NCAA Tournament teams in adjusted tempo. Furman can’t play a lick of defense (183rd in defensive efficiency), but can score the basketball, surely a plus, as it is 33rd in offensive efficiency and ranks 11th in points per game (80.4). A second-round matchup between UVA and SDSU would be the equivalent of Nyquil.
UC Santa Barbara was 3-1 against Quad 1 and 2 teams on the season and will face off against the number three seed in the region, Baylor (2nd in offensive efficiency, 104th in defensive efficiency). The winner of that game will face off against the winner of (6) Creighton-(10) NC State. Creighton, the 13th-ranked team according to KenPom (28th in offensive efficiency, 15th in defensive efficiency), is a dark horse to make it to the Sweet 16 and even beyond.
The 7/10 matchup in this region features (7) Missouri and (10) Utah State. If you love offense, this one will be appointment television. Both teams average at least 77 points per game and are both in the top-15 in terms of offensive efficiency (Missouri = 10th; Utah State = 13th). This game may very well come down to which team can get the necessary defensive stops, and if the efficiency ratings are any indication, Utah State has the leg up. Missouri is 178th in defensive efficiency.
The Arizona Wildcats, winners of the Pac-12 conference tournament, secured the No. 2 in the region and will face off against the nerd boyz of Princeton. Arizona is third in adjusted tempo and fourth in offensive efficiency among NCAA Tournament teams.
MIDWEST
Houston is the No. 1 seed in the Midwest, which comes as a surprise because Kansas had ten more Quad-1 wins than the Cougars and a much better strength of schedule. Houston lost to Memphis in the AAC Championship Game, largely because it was without Marcus Sasser, the team’s leading scorer and All-American candidate, due to a groin injury. Something to keep in mind. If he is healthy, Houston has a great chance to cut down the nets in Houston, of all places, because it is the only team ranked in the top-11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
The 8/9 matchup features two passionate (read: a little psycho, respectfully of course) head coaches, Fran McCaffery of Iowa and Bruce Pearl of Auburn. Iowa is outstanding offensively (3rd in efficiency), but absolutely atrocious defensively (167th in efficiency). Auburn, who is 4-9 in their last 13 games, can guard opposing basketball players quite well, ranking 29th in defensive efficiency.
The tale of the tape in the 5/12 matchup is the contrasting lifestyle and overall climate — Miami vs. Drake (located in Iowa). Drake is 16-2 in its last 18 games and shot 40% from deep during that stretch. Miami allowed opposing teams to shoot 33.6% from beyond the arc for the season, which ranked 145th in the country. However, the Hurricanes, who might be without big man Norchad Omierwere due to injury, were 8-1 before the ACC Tournament, where they lost to Duke in the semifinals.
The winner of that matchup will face off against the winner of Indiana and Kent State. Kent St., led by guard Sincere Carry, is a train wreck offensively (110th in efficiency) but is 38th in defensive efficiency, and the team has won ten out of their last 11 games. The Hoosiers, 27th in offensive efficiency, have not advanced to the second round since 2016.
Iowa St., the No. 6 seed in the region, will play the winner of Mississippi State-Pittsburgh. Pretty simple analysis: I love Iowa State because of its defense and its coach.
Bad boy Sean Miller, head coach of Xavier (9th in offensive efficiency), is back in the Big Dance as his once unclean hands will face off against Kennesaw State. The 3/14 matchup could be a three-point barrage: Kennesaw State shoots 37.1% from three (33rd in the country) and Xavier shoots 39.5% (3rd in the country).
Texas A&M, the No. 7 seed who will face off against Penn State, got absolutely hosed. How does a team that finished 2nd in SEC during the regular season and runner-up in the conference championship game get that seed? Maybe because the NCAA is a slave to the ratings and wanted to see them face off against Texas, the No. 2 seed, with a Sweet 16 berth on the line? I’m not an Aggies fan because I don’t like cults and, therefore, don’t have a dog in the fight, so that potential matchup sounds good to me.
But will Texas get past Colgate, who leads the country in three-point percentage (40.9%)? The problem for the toothpaste university: Colgate seems to have cinderblocks tied around their ankles when playing defense. The team ranks 231st in defensive efficiency, third-worst among all NCAA Tournament teams.
WEST
The Kansas Jayhawks are the No. 1 in the West region and will face the winner of Arkansas-Illinois. That 8/9 matchup features two teams that have each had a rollercoaster season and each team has a madman roaming the sideline. The makeup of this year’s Kansas team is eerily similar to last year’s team.
VCU, slated as the No. 12 seed and winners of nine-straight contests, forces a lot of turnovers (16.7 per game on average; 8th in the country), but St. Mary’s only commits 10.5 turnovers per game on average (27th in the country). Something has to give.
Slicky Rick Pitino, head coach of Iona who may be on his way out for greener pastures, will face off against Dan Hurley and the UConn Huskies in the 4/13 matchup. The Huskies, who lead the nation in offensive rebounding rate, are top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and hold an advantage down low due to the presence of Adama Sanogo. To the contrary, Iona guard Walter Clayton Jr. may give UConn some fits.
(6) My TCU Horned Frogs will face off against the winner of the play-in game between Arizona State and Nevada. TCU leads the nation in fast break points. Remember the name: Mike Miles.
Assuming the Horned Frogs make it to the second round, will they be able to get enough stops on defense against (3) Gonzaga, the best team in the country in terms of offensive efficiency?
The 7/10 matchup is Northwestern-Boise State. Both teams rank in the top 15 in defensive efficiency. Snooze fest.
UCLA, first in defensive efficiency, is the No. 2 seed and very well could make it to the Final Four, but Mick Cronin’s squad will need to overcome the loss of the team’s third-leading scorer and best defender, Jaylen Clark. Notwithstanding that, the Bruins should have a cakewalk to the Sweet 16.
The West is the hardest region to project IMO.
EAST
Purdue, winners of the Big Ten regular season and conference tournament, locked down the No. 1 seed in the region and will presumably play the winner of Memphis-FAU. Purdue shot 32% from deep and “committed turnovers on 18.5% of its possessions” from February 1st through the end of the regular season, per ESPN. During the B1G Tourney? 31.7% from deep but only averaged 8.3 turnovers per game (presumably less than 18.5% of its possessions). In case you need a reminder, the Boilermakers do have Zach Edey on their team. He is elite at basketball.
The 8/9 matchup, referenced above, will be an incredibly evenly-matched game (Memphis: 26th in off. efficiency/35th in def. efficiency; FAU: 32nd/36th). Memphis has only lost four games since the turn of the calendar and is led by guard Kendric Davis (21.8 points + 5.7 assists per game). FAU rode a 20-game win streak at one point this season and is 9-1 in their last ten games. I don’t think either team can challenge Purdue unless Edey gets into foul trouble.
The Duke Blue Devils, the No. 5 seed, are red-hot, winners of nine-straight games, and won the ACC conference title over the weekend. They await Oral Roberts, ranked 23rd in offensive efficiency, 38th in adjusted tempo (6th among NCAA Tournament teams), and first in turnover percentage. The Golden Eagles are led by Mr. Bucket, Max Abmas (22.2 points + 4 assists per game).
A good rule of thumb: Never trust Rick Barnes, head coach of Tennessee (No. 4 seed), in March Madness. Since the 2009 NCAA Tournament, he has made one Sweet 16 appearance (2019) and has only advanced to the second round five times (2009, 2011, 2014, 2018, 2022). Then again, his opponent, Louisiana, is anemic defensively (146th in defensive efficiency). However, the Ragin’ Cajuns’ main dude, Jordan Brown, is an animal — 19.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game.
The (6) Kentucky-(11) Providence matchup has been dubbed by many as the Bryce Hopkins Revenge Game. The forward, who is averaging 16.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, transferred from Kentucky unceremoniously. Regardless, it should be an offensive clinic as both teams are ranked among the top-16 in offensive efficiency. Kentucky has the edge defensively (71st vs 108th).
Kansas State, the No. 3 seed, has only been to the Sweet 16 three times in program history. Will this year mark the fourth time? Their two horses —forward Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell — are damn close to being stallions, with both averaging at least 17 points per game. The Wildcats turn the ball over way too much, though, ranking 298th in turnover percentage. Meanwhile, Montana State ranked first in defensive efficiency in the Big Sky and “forced turnovers on one-fifth of its conference opponents' possessions,” per ESPN.
January / February / IZZO / April. Very rarely should you doubt Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo in March. Sparty, the No. 7 seed, faces off against USC in the first round in what should be an evenly-matched contest based on efficiency numbers.
I hate to type this, but No. 2 seed Marquette (eighth in offensive efficiency) is really good. That being said, I hope they lose as early as possible. Shaka Smart & Co. will face off against Vermont, a team that ranks ninth in turnover percentage. To combat that, Marquette’s defense is 17th in turnover percentage. The Golden Eagles shouldn’t lose in the first round 😉.
A Duke-Marquette matchup in the Elite 8 would be my worst nightmare.
🤓 BATH TIME READING 🤓
Silicon Valley Bank is d-e-a-d
This week’s volume has already been longer than an anaconda, so I will try to keep this section as brief as possible. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), a governmental entity, snatched Silicon Valley Bank, a premier Silicon Valley/tech startup institution, off the streets on Friday. It was the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history.
To put it very simply, SVB over-leveraged itself by going ham on bond investments. The feds continuously raised interest rates, which crushed those bond investments like an obese person sitting down on a kid’s chair made of plastic.
SVB sold those bonds at a massive loss ($1.8 billion, to be exact) and in order to shore up its balance sheet, the bank sought $2.25 billion in investment capital. No cigar. And then, once account holders withdrew money as if they were hopped on Mountain Dew and cocaine — they withdrew $42 billion by the end of Thursday — SVB was like one of the piggies that went to the market. The bank was left with “a negative cash balance of $958 million” by Thursday EOD.
Per CNBC, only five percent of the deposits were FIDC insured (up to $250k) as of December. Yikes. Luckily, the federal government stepped in and announced Sunday that depositors will be paid in full and “will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer. … Shareholders and certain unsecured debtholders will not be protected. Senior management has also been removed. Any losses to the Deposit Insurance Fund to support uninsured depositors will be recovered by a special assessment on banks, as required by law.”
Federal regulators will now proceed with auctioning off SVB, which was once the 16th largest bank in the United States.
Signature Bank also shuttered, a popular crypto lender out of New York, “to prevent the spreading banking crisis.”
If memory serves me correctly, the insolvency of Lehman Brothers kick-started the 2008 financial crisis. Hopefully, the downfalls of SVB and Signature Bank are not a sign of things to come.
If you chuckled and/or enjoyed it, make sure to forward it to others and/or share it on social. Any corrections, omissions, suggestions, etc., send 'em my way. Much love. -Tubz