🏀 Tubz Unfiltered - Volume 119
March Madness; Boeing whistleblower
Happy Tuesday, y’all!
I’ve got a jam-packed Volume this week for y’all, so no sense in providing any filler here. But if I may, speaking of filler, let’s put an end to lip filler. I’m not trying to come off as anti-19th Amendment, but lip filler is tacky and is so obvious. Your lips are fine, Katie.
🏆 SPORTZ 🏆
AARON DONALD RETIRES
One of the best defensive players and arguably the best defensive tackle in NFL history is hanging the cleats up. He should be inducted into Canton tomorrow.
In 10 seasons:
3-time Defensive Player of the Year
8x first-team All-Pro
2014 Defensive Rookie of the Year
10x Pro Bowler
2024 NCAA TOURNAMENT
The best time of the year, March Madness, is finally upon us, ladies and gentlemen. Expect the unexpected. Prepare to get your hearts ripped out. Take off of work on Thursday and/or Friday to bask in the glory, or clock in and do absolutely minimal work and even crack open a cold one an hour before your work day is done because “f—k it.”
The UConn Huskies, the No. 1 overall seed, will attempt to make history in the 2024 NCAA Tournament by becoming the eighth program — and first since Florida in 2006 and 2007 — to win back-to-back national titles.
Beyond that, will this year’s tournament be full of chaos? Perhaps. After all, while Arizona (Pac 12), Houston (Big 12), Purdue (Big Ten), Tennessee (SEC), and North Carolina (ACC) each won the regular season conference title, none of them won the conference tournament crown.
And if your team lost in the first round of their conference tournament, you can kiss goodbye (no tongue, though; it’s just basketball) to any national title aspirations.
Before I provide some relevant tidbits about this year’s field, I have to be transparent: I’m a casual college basketball viewer. Which is to say: I have watched almost all of the Wisconsin games, like two regular season games involving other teams, and a handful of conference tournament games involving other teams. But I can read KenPom, make decent jokes, and watch YouTube videos, so I think I mostly have you covered.
Key:
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) = points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) = points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent
EAST
UConn will play the first and second rounds in Brooklyn, NY, and if they advance, will play in Boston for the Regional games (S16 and Elite 8). In other words, a big ole home court advantage for the Huskies.
The top four seeds in the region — UConn, Iowa State (No. 2), Illinois (No. 3), and Auburn (No. 4) — all won their conference tournaments. Gotta be a first, no?
Will Auburn and Bruce Pearl play spoiler to the Huskies and their quest to make history? Frankly, who the hell knows, but the Tigers are the only team in the field to rank in the top ten for AdjO (10th) and AdjD (4th). Auburn will have to get past the Exciting Whites (mostly, I think) of Yale, a team that DOES NOT turn the ball over very often (classic), and potentially the 2023 runner-up, San Diego St. (62nd in AdjO, 9th in AdjD), who face off against UAB in the opening round. UAB is absolutely atrocious on the defensive end. Do they even focus on defense during practice?
Illinois, fresh off a victory against Wisconsin, is elite offensively, but they cannot play a lick of defense. So something will have to give in a potential Sweet 16 matchup with Iowa State (1st in AdjD), a team that pistol-whipped Houston in the Big 12 title game. The Illini haven’t made it to the second weekend of the tournament since 2005.
Not only does Iowa State have the toughest bracket to manage, it also has history against it. In the 64-team era, none of the 36 teams which began the season unranked and went on to be a Top 2 seed reached the Final Four. Last year Marquette added its name to this list.
Sticking with Illinois … Brad Underwood’s squad should not overlook Morehead St. in the first round. Yes, the team’s efficiency numbers stink like a baby’s diaper, but the Eagles have a nice ball player on their squad, guard Riley Minix, who can light it up (20.8 PTS, 9.8 REB, 2.3 AST, 1.3 STL, and 1.0 blocks per game). Not to mention, Morehead St. averaged 76 points per game this season.
Duquesne, the No. 11 seed, is in the tourney for the first time since 1977 (!!) and will play the Mormons of BYU in Round 1. The Fightin’ Joseph Smiths are 11th in AdjO, so I would not be surprised if they take the Illini to the brink, and potentially win, in the second round.
The Washington State Cougars, the No. 7 seed, are in the Big Dance for the first time since 2008, and the Committee made them play a glorified road game against Drake. The game will be held in Omaha, roughly an hour and a half away from Drake’s campus. Drake guard, Tucker DeVries, the coach’s son, fills up the stat sheet (21.8 PTS, 6.8 REB, 3.6 AST, and 1.6 STL per game). Oh, I almost forgot: he averaged nearly 26 points per game and had a usage rate1 of 35% and a true shooting percentage2 of 60.3% against Quad 1 opponents this season.
WEST
Someone has to advance to the Final Four from this region. Them the rules.
Michigan State, the No. 9 seed, eeked into the Big Dance and is still favored against Mississippi St. Put MSU in your bracket to advance, and it is literally a lock.
The UNC Tar Heels, two years removed from playing in the national title game, are the No. 1 seed in the region. Good for them. Will Mississippi St. guard Josh Hubbard or Michigan St. guard Tyson Walker give the Tar Hells fits in the second round?
This region has the potential to feature several early round upsets — Grand Canyon (12 seed), New Mexico (11 seed), Nevada (10 seed), and another team (spoiler!). The New Mexico-Clemson matchup, in particular, is one that will feature two contrasting styles: the Lobos are 8th in adjusted tempo, while the Tigers are 260th in adjusted tempo.
Is New Mexico, No. 23 on KenPom (41st in AdjO, 23rd in AdjD), a potential Sweet 16 sleeper? They would have to get past Baylor (3 seed), a team that is far from the ‘85 Bears on defense but is somewhat close to the Greatest Show on Turf.
Nevada got violated with a 10 seed. If they beat Dayton in Round 1, will the Wolfpack challenge Arizona? I have no idea what to make of Arizona. They could advance to the Final Four, or lose in the second round. The Wildcats’ efficiency numbers are fairly similar to last year, and yet the Wildcats were bounced in Round 1 in 2023. The Wildcats play Long Beach St., who fired its coach before the conference tournament (!!), in the opening round.
Alabama (4 seed) is an offensive juggernaut, second-best in the country judging by AdjO, but defense is not a point of emphasis for the Tide (112th in AdjD). Luckily, they play a team in the College of Charleston that cannot guard a wall (176th in AdjD), but Charleston can score the rock and guard Reyne Smith shot almost 40% from deep for the season. The over/under as of Monday: 173. Offensive fireworks galore.
SOUTH
The 8-9 matchup between Nebraska, who has never won a game in the Big Dance, and Texas A&M should be an electric factory, as the kids say. Not only because it is the Trev Alberts Bowl (Alberts was the Nebraska AD, but recently took the AD gig at A&M), but also because of the starting point guards — Wade Taylor of A&M and Keisei Tominaga of Nebraska, dubbed by many as the Japanese Steph Curry. The winner gets Houston, a team that could make it to the national title game on the heels of a well-balanced attack (17th in AdjO, 2nd in AdjD).
At first impression, I thought that the Badgers’ first-round matchup with James Madison was not ideal. The Dukes have won 31 games and offer a balanced scoring attack, with three players averaging at least 12 points per game. However, their strength of schedule was 293rd in the country, per KenPom. They have played the Schools of the Blind AND the Deaf. (Note: James Madison did beat Michigan State in East Lansing early in the season.) Nonetheless, in two games against Quad 1 opponents this season, Terrence Edwards Jr. (6’6”) averaged 24.5 points per game. The X factor will be UW’s Steven Crowl. James Madison’s tallest guy is 6-foot-9 T.J. Bickerstaff, who averages 13.4 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, so if Crowl can assert his will (he’s been consistently inconsistent in that regard), advantage Wisconsin.
We could see a 2015 national title rematch if the Badgers and Duke are victorious in the first round, an offensive masterpiece in the making. Both teams are in the top 15 in AdjO. If Wisconsin loses to Duke again in the NCAA Tournament, I may take up crack smoking as a hobby.
Kentucky, the No. 3 seed, has the offensive firepower to make it to Phoenix, but the Wildcats’ defense is porous (108th in AdjD). Not enough film sessions breaking down defensive lapses, apparently.
Marquette, the No. 2 seed, is a wild card. Tyler Kolek hasn’t played since Feb. 28 due to an oblique injury. Will he be 100%? For what it’s worth, Marquette was able to advance to the Big East tournament finals without him. Western Kentucky, the Golden Eagles’ first-round opponent, was the No. 1 team in terms of tempo. Marquette hasn’t made it to the second weekend since 2013, and a Shaka Smart-coached team hasn’t made it to the second weekend since 2011.
Florida (7 seed) could maybe on upset alert versus the winner of Colorado/Boise? A player in Florida’s rotation, 7-foot-1 big man Micah Handlogten, who averaged 6.9 rebounds in 19 minutes of action per game, snapped his leg in half during the SEC title game, and Colorado (has a future NBA Draft lottery pick on the squad) and Boise are strong teams by some accounts, even though they were two of the last four teams to make the tournament. Moving right along!
MIDWEST
Will Purdue do what Virginia did in 2019 by winning the national title after getting bounced in the first round the year prior by a 16 seed? Unlikely. But maybe! Zach Edey, who is all but guaranteed to be the back-to-back National Player of the Year, has been babied by Big Ten refs all season. That likely won’t be the case in the NCAA Tournament.
The winner of Utah State and TCU will await Purdue (assuming the Boilermakers don’t piss down their legs for the second-straight year). Utah State has lost 10 straight games in the NCAA Tournament. The more ya know!
McNeese St. and Samford, the 12 seed and 13 seed, respectively, are popular picks to pull off the upset against two blue bloods (Gonzaga, 5 seed; Kansas, 4 seed).
Samford gets up and down the court in a hurry, and Kansas is dinged up, with the Jayhawks’ two best players, Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson, entering the tourney as questionable with injuries.
McNeese St. has won 30 games so far this season and is coached by Will Wade, a certified gangster who was wrongly fired by LSU after an FBI probe into basketball recruiting violations. McNeese St. shot almost 39% from deep, averaged 80 points, and had four players who averaged at least 11 points per game this season.
Sleep on Gonzaga at your own risk, though. The Zags have an Adjusted Offensive Rating of over 130 in the last 10 games, per CBB Analytics, the best in the country over that span. (Much to be desired on the defensive end over that same span.)
Tennessee, under the direction of NCAAT choke artist Rick Barnes, was hog-tied in the first round of the SEC tournament and lost at home to Kentucky in the regular season finale. So will the Volunteers rebound and make a deep NCAA Tournament run? Their defense has always been stout under Barnes, but the offense is what has struggled and held them back. This year, however, they have a spicy bucket getter in Dalton Knecht (see chart above), the SEC Player of the Year.
Creighton, the No. 3 seed, is the Final Four dark horse in the Midwest — an opinion brought to you by my 20/20 vision. The Blue Jays have three players who average at least 17 points per game and are anchored on defense by Ryan Kalkbrenner. The 7-foot-1 big boy averages three blocks per game and is a three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year.
If Oregon, the 11 seed, can sneak past South Carolina in the opening round, the Blue Jays will have a tough test against the Ducks. Here is how head coach Dana Altman, who coached Creighton before taking over at Oregon in 2010, has fared in his last eight NCAA Tournament appearances: Sweet 16 in 2013, second round in 2014 and 2015, Elite 8 in 2016, Final Four in 2017, Sweet 16 in 2019, and Sweet 16 in 2021. Oregon’s 6-foot-4 guard Jermaine Couisnard averaged 20.3 points per game against Quad 1 opponents (10 games) this season.
🤓 BATH TIME READING 🤓
The last days of the Boeing whistleblower
First off, my thoughts and prayers are with John Barnett’s family and friends. Barnett worked as a Boeing quality manager at the company’s North Charleston plant “that assembles the 787 Dreamliner. In that role, he’d alerted senior managers to what he called violations of legally required processes and procedures, and maintained that his warnings were being ignored. In the years following his departure, Barnett emerged as arguably the most renowned Boeing whistleblower, recounting the quality abuses he’d claimed to have witnessed to multiple media outlets.”
He was suing Boeing for violating the Dept. of Labor laws regarding retaliation against a whistleblower. His lawyer said of Barnett’s deposition, as Barnett was reciting what took place as if he was a walking encyclopedia: “‘This is the best witness I’ve ever seen.’”
Barnett finished his testimony on Friday, March 8 at 5 p.m. and planned to drive back home to Louisiana that night, “[b]ut the Boeing lawyers took the position that no more depositions could be taken until Barnett completed his testimony.” Hmm.
The next day, “Barnett was found in the Ram with a silver pistol still in his hand, his finger on the trigger. The Charleston County Coroner ruled the cause of death as ‘a self-inflicted wound,’ and a police report disclosed that ‘a white piece of paper resembling a note’ lay in plain view on the passenger seat. Its contents haven’t been disclosed.”
His attorneys said in a statement that they saw no signs on Friday that Barnett was in distress. Only that Barnett was tired. “We didn’t see any indication that he would take his own life.”
I’m not trying to get sued, so I’ll let you draw your own conclusions. But I do hope the death is fully investigated.
If you chuckled and/or enjoyed it, make sure to forward it to others and/or share it on social. Any corrections, omissions, suggestions, etc., send 'em my way. Much love. -Tubz
“A measure of the percentage of the plays a player is involved in the offense.”
“The true shooting percentage is the shooting percentage adjusted for three-pointers and free throws, and measures a player's efficiency at shooting the ball. True shooting percentage equals half the points scored divided by the sum of the field goals attempted and 0.475 times the free throws attempted.” Source