🍪Tubz Unfiltered - Volume 136
R.I.P. Famous Amos; CFB + NFL Preview
Happy Tuesday, y’all!
I moved to Dallas roughly four years to the day because I wanted a change of scenery, which included nice weather for nine months out of the year and no state income tax. I greatly enjoyed my time in the Great State of Texas, but it’s time for a new change of scenery.
I’m ecstatic to be taking a big ole leap and heading north to Connecticut (!!) next month to start a new chapter of my life and Tubz Unfiltered.
If you told me ~10 months ago I would be moving to New England, I would have told you to stay away from the drugs. But the fact of the matter is that (if I can be sentimental for a sec) life is full of surprises and wonderful life-altering opportunities ready to be taken advantage of; we simply have to have our eyes, ears, and hearts open to them.
Altogether, I’m looking forward to no more FaceTime dates with my best friend, dusting off my winter jacket, devouring pizza like I’m about to be cast in Heavyweights, working in and exploring New York City, and so much more.
🛁 EXTRA BUBBLES 🛁
Creator of Famous Amos Cookies Passes Away
Famous Amos cookies slap. And the next time I indulge, I will do so with a heavy heart as the founder, Wally Amos, sadly passed away last week. He was 88.
What started as making cookies with real ingredients from his aunt’s recipe in 1975 morphed into a $12 million company (about $42 million in today’s currency) by 1981. The cookies were delish, and Amos’ personality was larger than life.
An energetic, ever-smiling pitchman, known for his panama hat and colorful Indian gauze shirts, he loved the hustle of building a brand, going on the road to promote it for weeks at a time. (Today, both his hat and one of his shirts are held by the Smithsonian Institution.)
As every entrepreneur does, he endured struggles — the business reportedly lost $300k on sales of $10 million by 1985 — before selling the company to a private equity firm for $3 million in 1988. Wally didn’t stay on the sidelines for long, though. In 1991, he launched Uncle Wally, which sold muffins and appeared in roughly 5,000 retail outlets at one point in time. He later started Cookie Kahuna and Aunt Della’s, “but none caught fire.”
“Being famous is highly — very, very, very highly — overrated. I am fortunate that, through all the tribulations, all the ups and downs that I’ve experienced, I still make a cookie that tastes good.”
Pour out a bag of Famous Amos cookies in Wally’s honor — but make sure to utilize the five-second rule and still eat ‘em up because no one should ever waste Famous Amos cookies.
🏆 SPORTZ 🏆
COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS HERE
Week 0 of the college football season is this week, highlighted by Florida State and Georgia Tech squaring off in Dublin. Who cares, honestly. But what you should care about is this: the 2024 season will be like nothing we have seen before in the sport. No more BCS. No more four-team playoff. It’s 12-team playoff time, babyyyyyy — now with only four major conferences. The bluebloods will still likely find themselves in the playoff year after year, but the second- and third-tier programs finally have a realistic chance to claim a seat at the adult table, which is great for fans and the sport as a whole.
From 247Sports’ Bud Elliott (a must-follow on Twitter for CFB fans): “The 12-team playoff is going to keep so many more fans engaged and believing for longer.”
From CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd:
Heard a lot of 9-3 in the CFP talk. It's going to happen. It's going to happen a lot. This, from my research in late May at SEC spring meetings.
Going back to 1998 and plugging in the 12-team bracket, a total of 28 teams with at least three losses would have made the field over those 26 years. All of those 28 would have been from the current Power Four. Sixteen combined came from teams currently in the Big Ten and SEC. In only seven years would there have been no three-loss teams. Here's the breakdown: SEC (nine) Big 12 (eight) Big Ten (seven) ACC (four).
AFC PREVIEW
The NFL is officially almost back in our lives, ladies and gentlemen! So, as I have done the last two seasons, I will predict the over or under for individual team win totals in the AFC and NFC. Let’s start with the AFC.
In 2022, I went 7-8-1 for AFC teams, but I turned that bad boy around last season, going 8-7. (I skipped predicting the Denver Broncos’ 2023 win total; there will be no skips this season.)
Reminder No. 1: Please email your complaints to takealap@gmail.com.
Reminder No. 2: I have never crunched the numbers to see if the win totals add up correctly, and I won’t start this year. I’m not auditioning for a role in Good Will Hunting or Rain Man.
Over/under win totals are via FanDuel as of last Wednesday.
New England Patriots (over/under 4.5 wins)
The dawn of a new era in New England. Legendary head coach Bill Belichick is out, his former player Jerod Mayo is in as head coach. I like what the Patriots have on the defensive side of the ball, but their offense is a hot mess. Jacoby Brissett is slated to be QB1, a competent thrower of the football, but his receiving options are as good as Floyd Mayweather is at reading Dr. Seuss’ Cat in the Hat.
Prediction: Under 4.5 wins
Denver Broncos (over/under 5.5 wins)
Head coach Sean Payton is one of the most overrated coaches in NFL history. He rode the coattails of Drew Brees. Plain and simple. This season, his quarterbacks are Jarrett Stidham, Zach Wilson, and 2024 first-round selection Bo Nix. Not exactly murderer’s row. Actually, the quarterback play will probably make Denver fans commit murder.
Prediction: Under 5.5 wins
Tennessee Titans (over/under 6.5 wins)
The Titans were busy this offseason overhauling their roster, signing wide receiver Calvin Ridley, running back Tony Pollard, and center Lloyd Cushenberry during free agency. They also traded for star cornerback L'Jarius Sneed and drafted who they believe and hope to be the anchor of their offensive line for years to come, left tackle JC Latham. Oh, and they have a new head coach, Brian Callahan, the former Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator.
The team’s success in 2024 will likely hinge on the play of second-year quarterback, Will Levis, and I’m not sold he can lead them to at least seven victories.
Prediction: Under 6.5 wins
Las Vegas Raiders (over/under 6.5 wins)
QB Gardner Minshew, who was recently named QB1, has a cannon of an arm and is electric. He is the Kmart version of Brett Favre. The wide receiver depth behind Davante Adams is stinky, but Las Vegas has a formidable TE duo in second-year player Michael Mayer and rookie Brock Bowers.
On the other side of the ball, the defense finished 8th in DVOA last season and added monster defensive tackle Christian Wilkins in free agency. Lemme smoke that Raiders pack.
Prediction: Over 6.5 wins
Los Angeles Chargers (over/under 8.5 wins)
Jim Harbaugh is back in the NFL. I love Jim Harbaugh. And while he has the luxury of Justin Herbert at quarterback, the rest of the roster is mostly “eh.” The wide receivers are worse than “eh;” they are hot garbage.
Prediction: Under 8.5 wins
Jacksonville Jaguars (over/under 8.5 wins)
Is this the year that QB Trevor Lawrence takes that next step? Either way, I don’t like the vibe of this team. Hard-hitting analysis you won’t read anywhere else.
Prediction: Under 8.5 wins
Pittsburgh Steelers (over/under 8.5 wins)
I’m going to plagiarize myself and write exactly what I wrote last season: Mike Tomlin is still the head coach, correct? Looks like he is. He has never had a losing season since taking over at the helm in 2007. I have no reason to believe this season will deviate from that because the standard is the standard.
Prediction: Over 8.5 wins
Cleveland Browns (over/under 8.5 wins)
QB DeShaun Watson a/k/a Massage Boy is still the quarterback, and he has STUNK like a SKUNK since arriving in the armpit of America. In two seasons, he has played in only 12 games, completing 59.8% of his passes for 2,217 yards (~185 passing yards/game), 14 touchdowns, and nine interceptions.
Notwithstanding that, the defense should be a top-tier, elite unit again. So, if Watson can somehow remove his head from his backside, Cleveland is good enough to win the AFC North, a division it has not captured since 1989.
Prediction: Over 8.5 wins
Indianapolis Colts (over/under 8.5 wins)
Head coach Shane Steichen deserves more respect. In his inaugural season as a head coach, he led the Colts to 9 wins, with Minshew at QB for 13 games and running back Jonathan Taylor in and out of the lineup. This prediction is based on my infatuation with Steichen, and QB Anthony Richardson staying healthy. Church is on Sunday, so prayers up.
Prediction: Over 8.5 wins
Houston Texans (over/under 9.5 wins)
There’s a lot of hype surrounding the Texans, and rightfully so. C.J. Stroud looks like he is the next great quarterback; Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson should freely rip opposing quarterbacks’ faces off; and WR Stefon Diggs was added via trade to team up with a stout receiving corp. The run game leaves a lot to be desired, but that’s OK; no team is perfect!
Prediction: Over 9.5 wins
New York Jets (over/under 9.5 wins)
In last season’s preview, I literally willed the Jets to suckness. Aaron Rodgers played four snaps before his Achilles went pop goes the weasel, and the train went off the tracks thereafter. This season? IF Rodgers stays healthy, this team should be one of the best in the AFC. The defense is nasty; the offensive line was revamped; Breece Hall is Shifty McNasty; and Garrett Wilson is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the league. In fact, with mouth breathers throwing the football to him the past two years, he has eclipsed at least 1,000 yards in each of those seasons.
Prediction: Over 9.5 wins
Miami Dolphins (over/under 9.5 wins)
Head coach Mike McDaniel is an offensive savant, and the offense has an absurd, ungodly amount of speed. I like that. What I don’t like is Miami’s defense. Track meets galore this season.
Prediction: Under 9.5 wins
Cincinnati Bengals (over/under 10.5 wins)
I love Joe Burrow as much as the next guy, but the man has to stay healthy. Through his first four seasons, he has already missed 15 games. When he does play, though, he is a top-five gunslinger in the league, so his health will go a long way toward determining the Bengals’ 2024 fate. I also expect WR Tee Higgins to bounce back after an underwhelming 2023 campaign.
On the defensive side of the ball, their secondary was horrendous last season, ranking near the bottom (27th) in passing yards allowed, but they added two new safeties, Geno Stone and Vonn Bell, who should make an impact.
Prediction: Over 10.5 wins
Buffalo Bills (over/under 10.5 wins)
The Bills lost A LOT on both sides of the ball, including but not limited to both starting safeties, cornerback Tre’Davious White, edge rusher Leonard Floyd (10.5 sacks in 2023), WR1 Diggs, WR2 Gabe Davis, and center Mitch Morse.
This number seems like a trap, but I’ll take the bait anyway.
Prediction: Under 10.5 wins
Baltimore Ravens (over/under 10.5 wins)
Baltimore lost its defensive coordinator and will welcome three new starters along the offensive line. The latter is particularly notable because, according to ESPN’s Jamison Hensley, “when Lamar Jackson has been sacked four or more times in his career, Baltimore is 8-9 (.470). When Jackson is sacked three or fewer times, the Ravens are 50-10 (.833).”
Not ideal.
Prediction: Under 10.5 wins
Kansas City Chiefs (over/under 11.5 wins)
Plagiarizing myself from a year ago again: The squad still has the best quarterback in the league, a future Hall-of-Fame coach, and a future Hall-of-Fame tight end. Everything else will sort itself out.
Prediction: Over 11.5 wins
If you chuckled and/or enjoyed it, make sure to forward it to others and/or share it on social. Any corrections, omissions, suggestions, etc., send 'em my way. Much love. -Tubz