💃 Tubz 🛀 Unfiltered - Volume 45
Finland PM back in the news; NCAA Football '23; AFC Preview
Happy Monday (or Tuesday!), y’all!
I took in the Brewers-Cubs game on Saturday. My sole takeaway: sitting in the bleachers at Wrigley Field in the summer is the 8th Wonder of the World. I do not make the rules.
🛁 EXTRA BUBBLES 🛁
Work hard, party hard: Finland’s Sanna Marin faces backlash after leaked dancing video
Our old friend from Volume 15 is back in the news … for partying again. She was turnin’ down for what at a social gathering, and someone in the background of the recorded video may have mentioned Colombian Bam-Bam. That is a big no-no.
Rule No.1 of partying with a politician: do not mention hard drugs because, naturally, the public is going to think said politician is either doing hard drugs or, at the very least, around hard drugs.
Counterpoint: Plenty of politicians take big money from Big Pharma, but you do not see enough public outcry about that, so what is wrong with a little booger sugar to spice up the night? (If I have written it once, I have written it several times before: Tubz Unfiltered does not condone drug use.)
Anyway, Prime Minister Marin caved to the societal pressure and took a drug test. She tested negative for narcotics, yet tested positive for #WhiteGirlWasted.
“I don’t remember a single time that there was a sudden situation in the middle of the night to go to the State Council Palace,” Marin said. “I think my ability to function was really good. There were no known meetings on the days I was partying.”
This is not her first time around the block. She knows her schedule and knows when she can let loose. And you know what? I’m for it. President Obama and President Trump loved to golf quite a bit to unwind; President Biden loves to eat ice cream to unwind; and Prime Minister Sanna loves to toss several back to unwind.
The latter makes more and more sense after independent research because it appears that Finland’s economy has the people freaking out.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE in Finland has slumped to its lowest level in the 27-year history of consumer confidence measurements in Finland.
🏆 SPORTZ 🏆
Details on NCAA Football ‘23: Put this into a crack pipe and people will smoke it.
Who Is Going To Win the AFC: Last week, I wrote on the betting odds for which team will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl plus their wins over/under. You can read that here. This week, the AFC! Super Bowl odds via Caesars and over/under via DraftKings (except for the Browns; DK does not have their odds posted, so I used FanDuel).
— — —
Houston Texans (+12,500) (Over 4.5 wins, +100; under, -120)
I do not think things are as bleak as the betting market seems to suggest on the Houston Texans. Davis Mills is an above-average quarterback and I think the team found a diamond in the rough with rookie running back Damion Pierce.
Defensively, the prospects are not stellar in the slightest, particularly along the line, but I am a fan of rookie CB Derek Stingley. Altogether, I am very confident they will be better than the Falcons.
Prediction: Over 4.5 wins
New York Jets (+7000) (Over 5.5 wins, +145; under, -175)
Starting right tackle Mekhi Becton is out for the season, a blow to an already-shaky offensive line, but for the first time in a hot minute the Jets have legitimate weapons at offensive skill positions. The biggest cougar, er, elephant in the room is whether Zach Wilson (currently hurt w/ a bum knee) will take a big step up in Year 2. I am not sold on that prospect.
Prediction: Under 5.5 wins
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6000) (over 6.5 wins, +110; under, -130)
Out at head coach is Urban Meyer, in is Doug Pederson. Massive upgrade. I cannot state that enough. One is a Super Bowl-winning ball coach, the other let a woman that is not his wife sit on his lap, as if he was a creepy Santa Claus at a mall, at his own bar after not flying back with the team following a shitting of the bed on the field against the Bengals.
The Jags have won at least 7 games (see: the over) only twice since 2010 (8 in 2010, 10 in 2017) and have only won four combined games the last two years.
I’m bullish on this team’s long-term future, but they are still a year or two away from being competitive. In order for that to come to fruition, they need to stop flippantly spending money like a sugar daddy (see: Christian Kirk’s contract).
Prediction: Under 6.5 wins.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+4000) (over 7.5 wins, +100; under, -120)
Head coach Mike Tomlin has never finished with a record below .500 during his NFL head coach tenure. He is a Top G. So why would this year be any different? Not to mention, the 11th Commandment is Thou Shall Not Doubt Mike Tomlin, and I ain’t a sinner.
Prediction: Over 7.5 wins
New England Patriots (+2200) (over 8.5 wins, -125; under, +105)
Matt Patricia and Joe Judge appear to be splitting offensive play-caller duties. I am not an analytics nerd, but I do not think that is a winning combination.
You also have to consider that their No.1 wide receiver is Davante Parker — big ole yikes. Maybe Bill Belichick can work his devil magic, but I do not see this team as a playoff team.
Prediction: Under 8.5 wins
Las Vegas Raiders (+2000) (over 8.5 wins, -130; under, +110)
A shiny new toy in Las Vegas as the Raiders replaced an ~alleged~ vehicular murderer with Davante Adams. Seems like an upgrade. They also signed free agent edge rusher Chandler Jones (10.5 sacks in 2021). Despite those new acquisitions, a last place finish in the AFC West is definitely in the cards.
Prediction: Under 8.5 wins
Tennessee Titans (+2000) (over 9 wins, -105; under, -115)
Robert Woods and rookie Treylon Burks are the team’s top-2 pass catchers headed into the season. Is that good? Not quite, based on the eye test and I have 20/20 vision as of Summer 2017. Luckily, they still have Derrick Henry, a human version of a Mack Truck.
The Titans have won the division the past two years and have made the playoffs the last three years. I think they will make it four and will challenge the Colts for the division crown.
Prediction: Over 9 wins
Miami Dolphins (+2000) (over 9 wins, +100; under, -120)
Like Jalen Hurts, this is a big “prove it” year for Tua Tagovailoa. He has big-time weapons on offense, specifically WR Jaylen Waddle, TE Mike Gesicki, and new addition WR Tyreek Hill. Thus, will Tua continue to check-down passes after check-down passes or will he take the training wheels off and successfully throw the ball down the field?
P.S. This team would be a legitimate Super Bowl contender if they drafted Justin Herbert instead of Tua.
P.S.S. (or is it P.P.S.?) The Dolphins have only made the playoffs four times since the start of the 21st Century (2000, 2001, 2008, and 2016) and their last playoff victory was 2000.
Prediction: Push.
Cleveland Browns (+1600) (over 8.5 wins, +125; under, -145)
I hope they lose every single game and get booed into oblivion on the road because they employ an ~alleged~ serial sexual assaulter and gave him a fully guaranteed contract.
(The NFL and NFLPA reached a settlement agreement last week, whereby Deshaun Watson will be suspended for 11 games and fined $5 million. First game back will be against, you guessed it, the Texans.)
Prediction: Under 8.5 wins
Indianapolis Colts (+1200) (over 10 wins, -105; under, -115)
Here is the list of quarterbacks that the team has had under center since Andrew Luck retired in August 2019: Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer in 2019; Phillip Rivers in 2020; Carson Wentz in 2021; and Matt Ryan in 2022.
Despite that QB carousel, running back Jonathan Taylor is like Forest Gump, not based on intelligence but based on the fact he just keeps on running and does so well. Good traits to have.
Owner Jimmy Boy Irsay & Co. also added some nice players on defense, including DE Yannick Ngakoue and CB Stephon Gilmore. The roster is better than the Titans, but expect the AFC South division race to be a dead-heat: Titans have won four out of the last five matchups.
Prediction: Push
Cincinnati Bengals (+1148) (over 10 wins, +100; under, -120)
Super Bowl hangover? QB Joe Burrow was tossed around like a rag doll last year due to a trash offensive line, but they invested serious moola into that unit during free agency. In case it needs to be reiterated, it is imperative that the franchise protects Burrow at all costs. Defensively, CB Eli Apple is still collecting checks and that man is a second-class citizen on the football field.
Prediction: Push
Baltimore Ravens (+1000) (over 9.5 wins, -160; under, +130)
The biggest question mark is who in the world will Lamar Jackson throw to?
The team still employs TE1 Mark Andrews (career-high 1,361 yards in 2021), but they traded away WR Hollywood Brown, leaving Rashod Bateman as WR1, an unproven commodity at this point. The other wide receivers are no-name scrubs. Howevah, if the preseason is any indication (usually hit or miss IMO), rookie TE Isaiah Likely could be a real nice offensive weapon.
Altogether, John Harbaugh is a helluva coach. He will rally the troops. Plus, in addition to Likely, they picked up safety Kyle Hamilton, center Tyler Linderbaum, and defensive tackle Travis Jones via the draft, all of whom could play a significant role this season.
Prediction: Over 9.5 wins
Denver Broncos (+900) (over 10 wins, -110; under, -110)
Broncos Country, let’s ride. Out at quarterback is Drew Lock and Teddy Two Gloves, in is Russell Wilson. Denver also has a new head coach and a new owner — exciting! The team is looking to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2015 season, when they won the Super Bowl. I believe they will find themselves back in the playoffs this year.
Prediction: Push
Los Angeles Chargers (+750) (over 10 wins, -140; under +120)
Let’s start out by stating that this team should still be located in San Diego. Notwithstanding that, head coach Brandon Staley has balls of steel. It occasionally gets him into a pinch, but I appreciate his aggressiveness.
The Chargers added two stars on defense — OLB Khalil Mack and CB J.C. Jackson — but the biggest area of concern on that side of the ball is whether their run defense will improve. They ranked 29th in opponent rush yards per carry (4.6 yards/carry) and 30th in opponent rush yards per game (138.9 yards/game).
Regardless, Herbert is the real deal holyfield.
Prediction: Over 10 wins
Kansas City Chiefs (+550) (over 10.5 wins, -120; under, +100)
There is a lot of chatter that the Chiefs will take a fairly significantly step back this year after trading WR Tyreek Hill and, less so, after letting DB Tyrann Mathieu walk in the free agency.
The wide receivers they acquired via free agency and the draft are not exactly world beaters, but lest we forget that Patrick Mahomes is still the quarterback; Travis Kelce is still the tight end; DT Chris Jones is still fat, fast, and powerful; and Andy Reid is still at the helm, albeit significantly overweight. KC will be fine.
Prediction: Over 10.5 wins
Buffalo Bills (+329) (over 11.5 wins, -140; under +120)
They added OLB Von Miller, WR Jamison Crowder, and G Roger Saffold in free agency, and drafted CB Kaiir Elam in the first round, who will team up with All-Pro CB Tre’Davious White.
The Bills have experienced so much heartbreak in the playoffs over the years, not only last year but also in the Super Bowl in the ‘90s. Therefore, it is time for the Bills to experience jubilation in the playoffs and win the gotdamn Super Bowl. Bills Mafia deserves it.
Prediction: Over 11.5 wins
The Bills are winning the Super Bowl. Screw the “value” bets.
SUPER BOWL PREDICTION: Bills over Packers.
🤓 BATH TIME READING 🤓
This week’s issue has been long enough, so go take a shower.
If you chuckled, make sure to forward to others and/or share on social. Any corrections, omissions, suggestions, etc., send 'em my way. Much love. -Tubz